Oil-dollar: Current dynamics and market expectations – Analytics & Forecasts – 5 July 2023

Many multidirectional factors continue to operate on the oil market, while WTI oil quotes “guess” support at $67.00 per barrel: since March, the price has tried to break through this support 5 times , but so far no success.

As you know, at the beginning of last month, at the next OPEC+ summit, it was decided to reduce next year’s production by 3.66 million barrels per day (up to 40.46 million barrels per day), which is almost 1.4 million barrels minus OPEC+ production. target by 2023.

According to oil market analysts, OPEC+ production cuts will lead to an increase in oil prices, which may reach the level of $90-100 per barrel, although much will also depend on the state of the global economy, in US and China. oil markets, as well as the dynamic dollar.

Among the negative factors for oil prices, it is worth highlighting the less positive news about the Chinese economy, the largest oil consumer, and the intention of the Fed leadership to continue the cycle of raising interest rates.

The continuous reduction of oil production in OPEC+ contributed to the formation of positive dynamics in quotations, but so far – in the short term. At the moment, oil bulls have not returned to the downward trend of oil prices, and the nearest resistance of WTI oil is at the level of 71.60 (with the current quote of 71.10 – 71.20 dollars per barrel.

In the oil market, as we noted above, a steady downward trend is formed, and many positive news from the oil market have a short-term positive effect on the price without affecting -or in general fashion.

To get out again into the zone of a long-term bull market, the price must overcome the key resistance levels of 77.40, 78.40.

In an alternative scenario, the collapse of the support levels at 70.87, 70.30, 70.18 would be a signal to maintain short positions.

The long-term targets for reduction in this case are the support levels of 57.30, 54.50, which separate the global bull market from the bear market.

Support levels: 70.87, 70.30, 70.18, 70.00, 67.00, 64.00, 62.00, 61.00, 57.30, 54.50

Resistance levels: 71.60, 74.80, 75.40, 77.40, 78.40, 83.00, 94.00